Voting Begins in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Potential Second Win for Geert Wilders

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.